Daring Oscar Hopes: The Rock and Sydney Sweeney Shake Up Awards Season in Rocky, Revelatory Roles

I’m Quinn Parker, and yes, I am buzzing through the morning coffee like it’s jet fuel, ready to spill the tea on a pair who’ve suddenly edged into Oscars chatter. An over-caffeinated aunt here with the hot take you didn’t know you needed: could Dwayne Johnson and Sydney Sweeney actually snag Academy Award nominations, or even a surprise win, this season? The Toronto International Film Festival just closed its doors on a fall that was heavy with prestige films, and the verdict is mixed enough to rattle popcorn off the concession stand. Let me lay out what’s real, what’s watchful, and why these two big names are even being whispered about in the same breath as TIFF’s heavy hitters.

First up, The Rock. Johnson is shifting away from the neon glare of blockbuster superhero and blockbuster action roles toward something that wears its intensity on its sleeve. He plays MMA fighter Mark Kerr in The Smashing Machine, a role described as gritty and physically demanding. Critics have noted Johnson’s best acting work to date in this project, with some screening chatter leaning toward a more nuanced, less showy performance. The big question: can a star with decades of WWE fame translate that punch into serious Oscar contention? The answer, at least in current festival conversations, is yes with caveats. Johnson’s storytelling arc in this film leans into personal struggle and risk, a blend that historically has helped actors cross into the Academy’s more discerning landscape. Still, the vibe around the film itself is not a slam dunk—some critics found the film’s pace uneven or a touch underwhelming in the premiere circuit, which can dampen the kind of momentum needed for a nomination run. In other words: Johnson has the tool kit, but the machine may still be warming up.

Then there’s Sydney Sweeney, whose star power has grown leaps beyond her Euphoria days. In Christy, she embodies boxer Christy Martin in a transformative performance that spans years of upheaval and abuse. The role is built to showcase range—from vulnerability to grit—and several Canadian critics praised her commitment and depth, with her performance cited as the strongest element in the film. But here’s the rub: Oscar love for actresses who are rising as ingenues or breakout performers isn’t guaranteed to land in the same moment as male-driven boxing dramas tend to hog limited space in the nominations lineup. The film itself drew strong reactions in festivals, but the path to a nomination could hinge on how the surrounding cast and the engine of the film ride through awards season. The Academy tends to favor brands and narratives that feel inevitable, and Sweeney’s path may hinge on how well the film’s other elements click with voters who crave narrative momentum.

Other festival chatter suggests that the real Oscar pulse is around a raft of established contenders. Jessie Buckley in Hamnet, Emma Stone and Rose Byrne in their respective projects, and a handful of powerhouse performances are stealing a lot of headlines. The consensus among critics and insiders is that while Johnson and Sweeney bring undeniable star power and transformative performances to their projects, there are multiple hurdles to overcome before a nomination becomes anything more than a tantalizing possibility. The industry rulebook remains stubbornly opaque: a great performance must land in a season where the competition is fierce, the film’s release strategy aligns with the Academy calendar, and the storytelling feels both timely and timeless.

So, could The Rock and Sweeney surprise the Academy with nominations or even wins? It’s not outside the realm of possibility, but it’s not the most likely outcome either. Johnson’s arc feels primed for serious Oscar consideration if the film resonates deeply and finds a way to sustain narrative urgency across the season. Sweeney’s path may hinge on amplifying the role’s transformative power and letting the industry see her as more than a rising star—perhaps an actor who can anchor a feature with undeniable gravitas. Either way, the Oscar season is still in flux, and there are smart, strategic moves ahead that could shift momentum in unexpected ways. So keep your eyes peeled, popcorn ready, and the backstage chatter buzzing—because the next few months could flip these conversations on their heads. And yes, I’m here with my napkin ready for the inevitable red-carpet reveal and the next round of all-caps headlines. What’s coming next could redefine who is in play and who remains a gleaming, glorious long shot.

Sources: Celebrity Storm and [New York Post, TIFF coverage; Variety; The Guardian]
Attribution: Glasshouse-philip-johnson — Staib (CC BY-SA 3.0) (OV)